Decoding 2024 U.S. election
Decoding 2024 U.S. election
What really happened in 2020
Trump won, end of story. Not quite, the 2024 election results threw up some very interesting data which puts the incredible (as in not credible) 2020 results into sharp focus. Twitter/X is pushing Zerohedge clickbait about how Harris lost 20 million votes compared to Biden. That is “conspiracy theory” and I’m beginning to think that X is facilitating this circulation, whilst suppressing real analysis from our account and from @USMortality. Are the waters being muddied?
Let’s get some definitions out of the way. The point of the presidential election is to win the electoral college votes/seats, the first person to 270 electoral college votes/seats wins (total seats 538). Electoral college votes are awarded by state and in simple terms, whoever wins the popular vote in a particular state wins the number of electoral seats allocated to that state.
Like many voting arrangements, this system can also throw up bizarre outcomes. It is possible to win the presidency whilst having fewer votes nationwide than your opponent! This was the case for Trump in 2016. This happens due to a high concentration of votes in states with “excess” votes over and above the 50% (roughly) threshold. These “excess” votes do not increase the electoral college votes once a state has been called. This is particularly relevant for Democrats who have a large number of excess votes in the two most populous states; California and New York. That is why Trump won the presidency in 2016 (304 electoral votes against 270 target) whilst having 2.8 million fewer votes than Hilary Clinton.
The total number of votes for 2024 is still being calculated, but it is estimated by the University of Florida to be 158.5 million1. This is very close to the 2020 level, even though the population has grown 2020 to 2024.
The large number of votes for both Trump and Biden in 2020 suggest that voter turnout increased dramatically from 2016. In fact the number of ballots cast in 2020 exceeded 2016 by 21.7 million. This increase is unprecedented based on recent history, the average change in ballots cast between elections has been around 5 million since 1960. Even if you exclude years in which the number of ballots fell, the average positive increase is 7.1 million. Clearly an increase of 21.7 million is far outside any historic range and must be viewed as being highly suspicious.
Factoring in the growth in the voter base 2020 to 2024 means that the turnout rate expressed as a percentage of the Voting Eligible Population (VEP2) fell in 2024 versus 2020. The longer time series for turnout expressed as percentage of voting aged population (VAP – over 18) goes further back to 1932 and this shows that 2020 and 1960 represented the highest turnout ever recorded. Again, the most striking feature is the incredible (not credible) 8% increase between 2016 and 2020 up to 62.8%.
In addition to higher turnout figures in 2020, there were far fewer independent candidates in 2020 than 2016, which also served to increase votes for the two main Republican and Democrat and parties.
The story for 2024 is that with a fixed total turnout, gains for Trump/Vance have to come at the expense of Harris. In broad terms Harris gave up more than 40% of the gains apparently seen by Biden in 2020 at the national level. The exact retreat varies by state, Ohio is a good example where over 70% of 2020 gains (Biden v Clinton) are reversed to Harris 2024.
Querying the 2020 election outcome implies that I am prepared to accept that an element of the Left could, in principle, carry out mass falsification of voting ballots. I believe that is true given the fervent attachment to their ideology and willingness to denounce anyone opposing Leftism as a Nazi. If you really believe this, then ballot stuffing could be seen as a civic duty.
The wrong line of attack?
You may remember that back in 2020, the main line of attack was the infamous jump up in Democrat votes around 03:00 in multiple states (see below). Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai made a very convincing presentation, which was heavily censored at the time which is itself a strong indicator of truth.
I wasn’t previously aware about the unfeasible increase in voter turnout in 2020 versus 2016, that for me is probably an even redder flag.
I was triggered to write this due to the dishonest Zerohedge clickbait chart3. Rather than raising valid questions about the phenomenal increase in turnout in 2020 and the reversal of Democrat fortunes in 2024, the chart muddies the waters. Attempts to correct the Zerohedge chart from my account via replies, or from @USMortality seem to be killed stone dead. These tweets are receiving literally zero traction. Twitter/X users then fling around completely erroneous claims and counter-claims without addressing serious questions. But dear reader, that is probably Twitter’s main role, divide and conquer into echo chambers.
Trump big picture
I plan to do a separate note on this, but big picture no one won the 2024 election and you can see from the narrow margins discussed above that America remains a house divided. The political alternatives do not represent fine tuning around a common national vision, but represent radically different paths of neo-Marxism or conservatism, each with a roughly equal level of support. The great Sir John Glubb identifies this as an end of empire symptom: “True to the normal course followed by nations in decline, internal differences are not reconciled in an attempt to save the nation. On the contrary, internal rivalries become more acute, as the nation becomes weaker.”
My forthcoming analysis will start at looking at who gave the Trump campaign $ 1 billion and why they did this.
In conclusion, the mystery is not how Trump/Vance won 2024, but how he apparently lost in 2020.
Let me have your thoughts below and please don’t forget to circulate our material and support our work, I hope you appreciate that it requires a lot of analysis to presents important facts which are not to be found in the mainstream media, or in the bulk of the alternative media.
Alex Kriel is by training a physicist and was one of the first people to highlight the flawed nature of the Imperial COVID model4, he is a founder of the Thinking Coalition which comprises a group of citizens who are concerned about Government overreach (www.thinkingcoalition.com)
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/
Voting Eligible Population (VEP) is defined as voting aged population (VAP) less non-citizens, less ineligible felons plus overseas eligible (a new category in 2024). Voting aged population (VAP) is residential population age 18 and older.
With a huge increase voter turnout for both parties in 2020, does that mean the left faked votes for both parties or both sides faked votes? I see that there was a similar increase in votes in the late forties. Men returning from the WW2 I presume?