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I recently read Simon Elmers articles (arch for social housing) on replacement immigration (I recommend these). But it left me wondering-do we really need a birth rate of 2.5 to support the elderly? Is that a myth to excuse immigration? I think you may be alluding to this theory not being true. Would be interested in your thoughts on that.

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Yep Simon's work is very good - technocrats back-solve for the number of immigrants "required" based on fertility trends and ratio of working age to retired (its about 3 to 1 now and already quite low) - if you reduce fertility or require a higher support ratio you create the case for mass immigration. The most aggressive scenario for UK prepared by United Nations "requires" 1 million immigrants per year and would move UK population to 59% immigrant by 2050. The main point is that Conservatives can't talk about reducing immigration without talking about increasing fertility.

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Yep Simon's work is very good - technocrats back-solve for the number of immigrants "required" based on fertility trends and ratio of working age to retired (its about 3 to 1 now and already quite low) - if you reduce fertility or require a higher support ratio you create the case for mass immigration. The most aggressive scenario for UK prepared by United Nations "requires" 1 million immigrants per year and would move UK population to 59% immigrant by 2050. The main point is that Conservatives can't talk about reducing immigration without talking about increasing fertility.

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Nov 6Liked by Thinking Coalition

Thanks Alex. Fertility should certainly be spoken about given that it's a medical issue probably resulting from chemicals (food,plastic,jabs). But just as I don't like oligarchs and govs persuading ppl not to have kids, I'm not keen on them persuading them to have them. Either way it's population control by oligarchs for financial gain. I understand Japan are going to deal with it without immigration as they want to keep the country Japanese. Not sure what their plan is though .

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