Is Russia collapsing and when will there be peace?

A look at actual Russian economic data

I sat through yet another Times Radio interview in which “expert” Diane Francis confidently told us yet again that Russia was on the brink of military and economic collapse. My quick search of the Times Radio content on YouTube revealed that this Murdoch outlet has been forecasting Russia’s imminent collapse on a monthly basis for well over three years, beginning with the predictions of Ben Hodges III, a Leftist retired U.S. general and a relentless war-monger.

The “experts” that Times Radio platforms seem to have two main characteristics. Firstly, they have a deep-seated dislike of Russia and, secondly, they are funded by arms industry and Ukrainian billionaire funded “think-tanks”. Until recently, Ben Hodges was the “Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies” at CEPA (the Centre for European Policy Analysis based (confusingly) in Washington) with a salary of USD 200,000 per annum. Diane Francis is a “Senior Non-Resident Fellow” at the Atlantic Council, receiving an unknown but likely large amount in this capacity.

No academic qualifications nor processes underpin the lofty titles handed out by “think tanks”. The titles are part of the intellectual cosplay of pretending to be centres of study, rather than arms industry fronts pushing war propaganda. The “analysis” is, for the most part, fact-free and relies on dishonesty and largely fabricated statistics. I thought that it would be interesting to look at some actual statistics reported by Russia.

There are two main sources of official data about Russia, one being the statistics agency (Rosstat) and the second being the Bank of Russia. While it is possible to argue about the veracity of some numbers, the claim that Russia is collapsing economically without citing any actual data is ridiculous.

The Russians have restricted the publication of some data whilst the “special military operation” (SMO) is ongoing, however a wealth of key figures are still publicly available, albeit ignored by the propagandists.

Foreign trade is not collapsing

There are an estimated 20,000 individual sanctions against Russia, which is now the most sanctioned country in the world. The EU started imposing a new round of sanctions in February 2022 and is now on its 19^th sanctions package.

The primary aim of sanctions has been to stop both exports from, and imports into, Russia. The dark blue line in the chart above shows exports of goods in USD billions per month. The light blue line shows goods imports. From this chart it can be seen that monthly imports have held up reasonably well, almost always above the dotted line which shows the average monthly imports in 2020. In other words, aggregate imports have remained resilient and well above the average 2020 pre-sanctions level, although there are doubtless problems in individual categories of goods.

The export line shows a large fall from 2022, but this is mainly driven by energy prices which peaked at very high levels in early 2022 at the start of the SMO. The subsequent decline can for the most part be attributed to the decline in energy prices. Looking at the last available month (August 2025), total exports were USD 31.5 billion. It makes sense to compare this figure to the last pre-SMO month that had a comparable oil price. This was May 2021 (when the crude Brent price was USD 68.53 per bbl), at which time exports were USD 34.9 billion. So August 2025 is worse than May 2021, but not collapsing.

In fact it was another Times Radio interviewee, Yale Professor Jeff Sonnenfeld, who confidently stated that Russia would not be able to switch oil exports from Europe to other countries. Yet that is precisely what Russia did when it transferred very large volumes to India, Turkey and China.

In effect, Russia has been able to compensate (so far) for the loss of around USD 9 billion per month of exports to the EU with incremental volumes going eastwards.

One area where European sanctions have been effective is in the destruction of Europe’s own industrial capacity. The loss of supply of low-cost Russian piped gas (along with other factors) has undermined the competitiveness of industry in Europe.

GDP and Hydrocarbon production is not collapsing

Russian GDP was up 1.2% for the first half of 2025, though within that overall positive number there were acknowledged pockets of weakness, particularly in new home building (expressed in m²), which was 8.3% down in September 2025 compared to 2024. Paradoxically, this decline was not due to sanctions, but primarily down to the Bank of Russia’s increase of interest rates to a peak of 21% in October 2024 in order to fight inflation. This move helped to crush the growth in bank loans, particularly mortgage loans, and was the driver of a fall in residential construction, not sanctions.

The Russians have withheld some production numbers, including oil production, but overall data on gas production is still being published. That figure has started to show some weakness in 2025 compared to 2024, with a 3.6% decline for the first nine months of 2025 compared to 2024. Associated gas (in other words, natural gas produced as a result of oil production) is a reasonable proxy for oil production and that too was 4.4% down in the first nine months of 2025.

Is the country going bust?

Russia has always run a conservative budget policy which, together with large foreign trade surpluses, have allowed it to accumulate savings in the Russian National Wealth Fund and increase its central bank reserves. Official data does not indicate any decrease in the Russian National Wealth Fund (latest balance RR 13.6 trillion, around USD 160 billion). Central bank reserves are valued at USD 647.4 billion at September 2025. Profligate Western governments are trying to steal (or as they put it “freeze”) these reserves despite the extensive legal protections relating to central bank reserves.

Russia’s Federal budget has been weaker in 2025 compared to prior years, when it was often in surplus for eleven months before large spending in December pushed it into a small deficit for the year. The Ministry of Finance expects a 2.6% deficit for 2025, for comparison the U.K. is expecting a deficit of 4.8% of national income, but that is of course without fighting a massive SMO.

What next?

Bearing in mind Yogi Berra’s wise warning that “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”, it is hard to tell what will happen next. The Collective West appears to be getting serious about secondary sanctions whereby countries buying Russian oil will be liable to U.S. sanctions. A measure (HR 2548) has been introduced in the U.S. Senate and President Trump has directed President Erdogan of Turkey to stop buying Russian oil and gas. People inside Russia don’t seem overly worried about secondary sanctions and assume that the profits from buying discounted Russian oil will justify some sanctions risks. I am less certain, given that access to Western markets is critical for Turkey and India, certainly more so than trading profits from Russian crude.

Unlike the Times Radio propagandists however, I can’t make definitive statements – there are a wide range of possible outcomes subject to a lot of uncertainties. Based on actual economic and trade data to September 2025 though, the Russian economy is holding up well and the hundreds of confident “Russia collapsing” predictions made over the past three plus years have proven themselves to be dead wrong. If the current trajectory is maintained, the Russian economy will keep moving along with moderate growth. On the other hand, if Turkey and India can be pressured into ceasing to buy Russian crude, say by the threat of secondary sanctions, then the Russian economy will suffer.

A peace deal?

The Russia-Ukraine news cycle fluctuates wildly between peace and war very rapidly, but a recent article from Politico suggests that the Russians and Americans have largely thrashed out a peace deal which Ukraine will accept given the military realities and difficult political situation inside Ukraine.

I spoke to a respected analyst who is well connected in Russia. His view is that it has largely been agreed that the Russians want to make some further military advances at the end of 2025 and at that point it will become acceptable to freeze the contact line at the edge of the four regions that Russia has claimed. This outcome would probably represent a lose-lose outcome for the protagonists. Sections of the American “elite” will be happy as they have significantly increased LNG exports to Europe, weakened European industrial capacity and inflicted a costly conflict on Russia (very much in line with the 2019 recommendations of the Rand Corporation). In addition, American weapons will be sold to Ukraine, paid for by European governments (taxpayers) under the PURL programme.

There are and will be implacable war mongers in Washington who continue to believe their own “Russia collapsing” propaganda, and who will violently resist this peace initiative. I hope that Russia and China’s decision to not block the American Gaza plan at the Security Council might be an indication that some more sensible quid-pro-quo discussions are possible between the U.S. and Russia, which will necessarily exclude the war-mongering Europeans.

Best wishes

Alex

(thanks again to Mark Halliday Sutherland for editing)

Alex Kriel is by training a physicist and was one of the first people to highlight the flawed nature of the Imperial COVID model. He spent his career in consultancy and fund management including a long stint in Russia. His last job was in one of the world’s largest pension funds where he handled corporate governance issues and shareholder voting over a portfolio of 2,300 equity investments. He is a founder of the Thinking Coalition which comprises a group of citizens who are concerned about government overreach and are developing practical solutions to protect inalienable individual liberties (www.thinkingcoalition.org)

Conflict of interest statement

I don’t receive any financial incentives other than from subscribers, I do however have a long professional association with Russia and have Russian family members.